Your mortgage rate does not care who wins on November 3. It cares about inflation, the Federal Reserve, and what bond investors expect next. The election matters only to the extent it changes those expectations. Freddie Mac's weekly survey on October 29 put the 30 year fixed at 7.24%, down from 7.32% the week before, after a three year high near 7.4% earlier in the month. A year ago the same survey read 6.17%. If you are buying or refinancing in Scottsdale or Phoenix this week, here is what to watch and what to ignore.

Does the election set your mortgage rate?

No. Mortgage rates track the 10 year Treasury yield plus a spread for mortgage bond demand. The president and Congress do not set that number, and neither does one election night. We broke down the mechanics in our guide to why mortgage rates sit above the 10 year Treasury, and it is worth a read before you believe any headline that says a party will fix rates.

What an election can do is shift expectations. If investors decide a result means more federal borrowing, Treasury yields can climb and your rate follows. If they decide it means the opposite, yields can ease. I can not tell you which way it goes, and neither can anyone selling a forecast. Bond markets often move on the news within hours, which is why a quote you get Monday can look different Wednesday.

What the Fed already told us

The Fed has been moving up, not down. It raised its key rate in September, the first hike in three years, according to the Associated Press. September inflation ran 3.7% over the prior year, and economists quoted in that report expect another increase at the December 9 meeting. That is the bigger story for your rate than any ballot. We covered the latest decision in our Fed hold breakdown, including why two members wanted a hike.

You can read the committee's calendar directly on the Federal Reserve FOMC page. Put December 9 on your calendar. If your closing falls near it, that date matters more to your lock than November 3 does.

The election is one headline. Inflation is the trend.

What higher rates are doing to buyers

They are keeping people on the sidelines. Mortgage applications fell about 7% in the latest weekly data, as we covered in our look at the application drop. Fewer buyers means less competition in the Valley, and the Homes.com Phoenix housing market report shows how that plays out in local inventory and days on market.

That is the quiet upside of a high-rate fall. Sellers in Maricopa County are negotiating more than they were two years ago. A buyer who is pre-approved, has a lock strategy, and can close on a clean timeline has leverage right now. A buyer who spends November refreshing rate headlines does not.

What I am telling clients this week

Three things. First, get pre-approved now if you plan to buy before spring, because the approval letter lasts and the rate does not have to be locked to get one. Second, stress test your budget at a rate half a point higher than today's quote, and only write an offer that survives it. Third, ignore anyone who promises a rate drop after the election. Nobody has that information.

Buyers in Scottsdale and Phoenix who wait for a perfect headline usually lose a month of rent or a month of equity while they do. Buyers who build a plan around their own numbers close the loan and refinance later if rates fall. That second option is real. A purchase at today's rate is not permanent, and a refinance becomes available once rates and your equity make the math work.

Run your own numbers

What a few tenths of a point cost

The numbers are smaller than the headlines make them sound, and bigger than a year ago. The table shows principal and interest on a $400,000, 30 year fixed loan at three rate levels from the past twelve months.

Read it two ways. The distance from last year's rate to today's is $284 a month, and no election will close that gap. The distance from today's rate to the October peak is $44 a month. Locking or floating around Election Day is a $44 question. Whether you can afford the loan at all is the $284 question, and that one deserves your attention first.

Lock before Election Day or after

Lock when your closing date and budget say so. If you close inside 45 days and a few tenths of a point would strain you, lock now and stop watching. If you have room and a closing date past mid-December, ask for a longer lock instead of timing the news. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau explains how a rate lock works and what happens if it expires, which is the part people skip.

We went through lock periods, extension costs, and float down options in our guide to the mortgage rate lock decision in Arizona. Short version: a 60 day lock usually costs a little more than 30 days, but it is cheaper than an extension in the middle of a volatile week. Tell your loan officer your real closing window up front.

If you are still shopping homes, browse listings on Arizona Luxury Property Search and run your payment in the calculator above before you write an offer. Test your budget at 7.5% too. If the deal still works there, an election night move will not break it.

If you are thinking about refinancing

At a 30 year rate above 7%, most homeowners with a 2023 or 2024 loan are not in the money. The people worth a look are those with an FHA or VA loan, an adjustable rate near its reset, or a loan that carried points. Everyone else should run the break even math before paying any closing costs. If you are near the conforming ceiling, check the current figure on the Federal Housing Finance Agency site, because crossing into jumbo territory changes pricing.

Rate sheets reprice during the day, and a quote that was good at 9 a.m. can be gone by 2 p.m. That is why we ask for your scenario and give you a number the same day, rather than a range nobody can close at. We work with buyers and homeowners across Scottsdale, Phoenix, and the rest of Metro Phoenix, and we shop multiple wholesale lenders. See the loan programs we offer, how our process works, and start at pillarmortgagegroup.com.

Frequently asked questions