The Fed meets December 8 and 9, and the best read right now is that it holds. The federal funds target sits at 3.75% to 4.00% after the October 27 and 28 meeting, and Fortune reports that market observers do not expect a cut at the last meeting of the year. That matters less for your mortgage than you think. Your 30 year rate follows the 10 year Treasury and mortgage bond demand, not the Fed's overnight rate. Here is what to watch if you are buying or refinancing in Scottsdale, Phoenix, or anywhere across Metro Phoenix.

What the Fed Decides in December

The Federal Open Market Committee sets a target range for the federal funds rate, which is what banks charge each other for overnight loans. It does not set your mortgage rate. The committee's calendar is public on the Federal Reserve's FOMC page, and December 8 and 9 is the only meeting left in 2026. Fortune's November 6 rate report says observers do not foresee a cut there.

The reason is inflation. Bankrate reported that consumer inflation rose to 3.7% in September and linked part of the pressure to oil prices tied to the conflict in Iran. A Fed that is still fighting inflation does not rush to cut. We walked through the same tension before the last two meetings in our posts on whether the Fed would cut in September and on whether the Fed controls mortgage rates at all.

The Fed moves the short end. Your mortgage lives on the long end. Watch the 10 year Treasury, not the headline.

Where Mortgage Rates Stand Right Now

Rates have come down from the fall peak but they are still high. Bankrate's weekly lender survey put the 30 year fixed at 7.26% on November 4, down from 7.31% a week earlier and 7.53% four weeks ago. That is a long way from the 6.31% average a year ago. Bankrate also reported that the 10 year Treasury yield slipped below 5%, from about 5.3% the month before, which is the main reason mortgage rates eased. Different surveys land in different places: the Mortgage Research Center average that Fortune cites was 7.046% on November 5, because each survey uses its own lenders and its own assumptions about points.

Our post on the October rate high shows how fast the cost of a loan can jump, and the November retreat is the other side of that. Bankrate noted that housing economists no longer expect rates to fall below 6% in the near term, and even a return below 7% looks like a stretch to them. That is a forecast, not a fact, and forecasts on rates miss often.

What a Quarter Point Costs You

Every quarter point is worth about $68 a month on a $400,000 loan. That is real money, but it is not the whole story. The table below shows principal and interest only on a 30 year fixed loan. It leaves out taxes, insurance, and mortgage insurance.

Use the calculator below to test your own loan. Enter the loan amount as the price, set the down payment to 0, and change the rate. The numbers are estimates, not a quote.

Run Your Own Numbers

How a Fed Decision Does and Does Not Reach Your Rate

The link is loose. When the Fed signals that it will cut later, bond investors often move first, so mortgage rates can fall weeks before the meeting and barely budge on the day. When the Fed holds and sounds cautious, rates can rise even though nothing changed. Our explainer on the gap between mortgage rates and the 10 year Treasury covers why the spread is wider than it used to be. If the 10 year keeps sliding after the meeting, mortgage rates tend to follow. If it jumps back toward 5.3%, they do too.

So the useful question is not what the Fed does on December 9. It is what the 10 year does in the two weeks around it, and whether you are exposed. A buyer closing December 20 is already locked or should be. A buyer who has not found a house is not facing a rate decision yet.

What to Do Before the December Meeting

Start with the payment, not the forecast. Pick the highest payment you are comfortable with and work backward to the loan size. If a 7.25% rate fits, a lower rate in January is a bonus and a higher rate is not a crisis. If the payment only works at 6.5%, you are betting on a drop that economists are not forecasting.

If you are within 30 to 45 days of closing, lock when your numbers work. Ask about a float down, which lets you take a lower rate if the market improves before you close. It usually costs something, so see the math in our post on mortgage float downs in Arizona. If you are buying a home above the conforming limit or a second home, rates differ, and the loan programs we shop show the spread.

If you already own and your rate is 7.75% or higher, the break-even math can work even without a Fed cut. Read how we run it on our process page, then ask for a quote. A refinance is not a one time chance. You can refinance again if rates fall further, so long as the costs earn themselves back. Homeowners in Phoenix and Scottsdale ask me this every week.

The Local Picture Behind the Rate

Rates are only half the Arizona story. Prices in Metro Phoenix have flattened, inventory has grown, and sellers are offering credits more often than a year ago. Homes.com publishes a regular Phoenix housing market report if you want the local numbers by month. A buyer with a firm approval and some room to negotiate can often get a seller to pay for a rate buydown, which lowers your payment without waiting on the Fed. If you are still shopping, you can browse homes at Arizona Luxury Property Search.

For plain language guidance on comparing offers and reading your Loan Estimate, the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has free tools, and it is worth ten minutes before you sign anything.

Frequently Asked Questions